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US vs China population, 1950 to 2100

China had about 1.42 billion people in 2023 against 343 million in the US. The UN projects the gap narrowing to 633 million vs 421 million by 2100.

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What the data shows

  • China: 544M in 1950, 633M in 2100 (projected). The latest estimate is 1,423M in 2023. It peaked at 1,426M in 2020.
  • United States: 154M in 1950, 421M in 2100 (projected) (2.7× higher). The latest estimate is 343M in 2023. It is projected to peak at 421M in 2099.

About this chart

China's population is more than four times that of the United States: an estimated 1,423 million against 343 million in 2023. In 1950 the ratio was about 3.5 to 1 (544 million to 154 million). China peaked at 1,426 million in 2020 and 2021 and has been shrinking since, while the US keeps growing. The UN projects China at 1,260 million in 2050 and 633 million in 2100, and the US at 381 million in 2050 and 421 million in 2100, leaving China with about 1.5 times the US population.

Figures come from the UN World Population Prospects 2024 via Our World in Data. Values through 2023 are estimates and everything after is a medium-variant projection, a scenario and not a forecast. The comparison is for the whole population of each country, in millions. Projected declines depend on assumptions about births, deaths and migration that may not hold.

The data

Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024 via Our World in Data; estimates to 2023, medium-variant projections after, millions. Retrieved November 4, 2026.

US vs China population, Millions of people, 1950 to 2100 (UN projections after 2023), 1950–2100
Date🇨🇳 China🇺🇸 United States
1950544M154M
1951554M156M
1952565M159M
1953578M161M
1954590M164M
1955604M166M
1956617M169M
1957630M171M
1958644M174M
1959653M177M
1960655M180M
1961656M183M
1962665M187M
1963685M190M
1964705M193M
1965723M196M
1966742M198M
1967761M201M
1968781M203M
1969802M205M
1970823M208M
1971844M210M
1972864M213M
1973883M215M
1974900M217M
1975916M219M
1976930M221M
1977944M223M
1978956M225M
1979969M228M
1980983M230M
1981998M232M
19821,014M235M
19831,029M237M
19841,044M239M
19851,060M242M
19861,077M244M
19871,096M246M
19881,115M248M
19891,134M251M
19901,154M253M
19911,171M256M
19921,185M260M
19931,197M263M
19941,209M265M
19951,220M268M
19961,231M271M
19971,241M273M
19981,251M276M
19991,260M279M
20001,270M281M
20011,279M284M
20021,287M287M
20031,295M290M
20041,302M293M
20051,310M296M
20061,318M299M
20071,326M302M
20081,334M305M
20091,343M308M
20101,352M311M
20111,360M314M
20121,370M317M
20131,379M320M
20141,388M323M
20151,396M326M
20161,404M329M
20171,412M332M
20181,419M335M
20191,424M338M
20201,426M339M
20211,426M340M
20221,425M342M
20231,423M343M
20241,419M345M
20251,416M347M
20261,413M349M
20271,410M351M
20281,406M352M
20291,402M354M
20301,398M356M
20311,394M357M
20321,389M359M
20331,384M360M
20341,379M362M
20351,373M363M
20361,368M365M
20371,362M366M
20381,356M368M
20391,349M369M
20401,343M370M
20411,336M371M
20421,329M373M
20431,322M374M
20441,314M375M
20451,306M376M
20461,298M377M
20471,289M378M
20481,280M379M
20491,270M380M
20501,260M381M
20511,250M382M
20521,239M383M
20531,227M383M
20541,215M384M
20551,202M385M
20561,189M386M
20571,176M386M
20581,163M387M
20591,149M388M
20601,135M389M
20611,121M390M
20621,107M391M
20631,093M392M
20641,079M392M
20651,066M393M
20661,052M394M
20671,038M395M
20681,025M396M
20691,012M397M
2070999M398M
2071986M399M
2072973M400M
2073960M401M
2074947M402M
2075934M403M
2076922M404M
2077909M405M
2078896M406M
2079883M406M
2080870M407M
2081857M408M
2082844M409M
2083832M409M
2084819M410M
2085806M411M
2086794M412M
2087781M412M
2088769M413M
2089757M414M
2090745M414M
2091733M415M
2092722M416M
2093710M417M
2094699M417M
2095688M418M
2096677M419M
2097666M419M
2098655M420M
2099644M421M
2100633M421M

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Frequently asked questions

Which has a bigger population, the US or China?

China, with an estimated 1,423 million people in 2023 against 343 million in the United States, according to UN estimates. China's population is more than four times larger.

Will the US ever pass China in population?

Not in the UN's medium projection. It has China at 633 million and the United States at 421 million in 2100, so China remains larger, though the gap narrows sharply.

When did China's population peak?

At 1,426 million in 2020 and 2021 according to the UN series. It is estimated at 1,423 million in 2023 and is projected to fall to 1,398 million by 2030.

Where does this data come from?

UN World Population Prospects 2024 via Our World in Data; estimates to 2023, medium-variant projections after, millions. Retrieved November 4, 2026. You can download the full table as a CSV from this page.

Can I turn this chart into a video?

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