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Countries Projected to Lose a Third of Their Population

UN projects 29 countries and territories to lose a third by 2100. Under the medium scenario, Hong Kong loses 72% between 2023 and 2100.

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What the data shows

  • In 2023–2100 (projected), Hong Kong ranks #1 with 72.0%, ahead of Puerto Rico (69.3%) and Jamaica (62.4%).

About this chart

Hong Kong has the largest percentage decline in this comparison: 72% between 2023 and 2100. Its population is projected to move from 7,442,738 to 2,080,294 people. Puerto Rico follows with a 69.3% decline, from 3,242,022 to 995,622 people. There are 29 qualifying countries and territories; the table shows the 15 largest percentage losses. Only countries and territories with at least 1,000,000 people in 2023 enter the comparison.

The endpoint in 2100 comes from the UN medium-variant projection, while 2023 is a historical estimate. These numbers describe one demographic scenario, not an assured outcome. The percentage compares each country with its own starting population, so a smaller country can rank above a larger country even when it loses fewer people in absolute terms. Each qualifying country is projected to lose more than one-third of its starting population.

The data

Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024 via Our World in Data; estimates to 2023, medium-variant projections after. Retrieved November 5, 2026. Population loss = (1 - population in 2100 / population in 2023) × 100. UN medium-variant projections after 2023; this is a scenario, not a forecast certainty. Country comparisons include World Bank country and territory entries. Includes populations of at least 1,000,000 in 2023.

Countries Projected to Lose a Third of Their Population, Projected population loss, 2023–2100 (%), 2023–2100 (projected)
DateHong KongPuerto RicoJamaicaUkraineAlbaniaSouth KoreaLithuaniaBosnia and HerzegovinaChinaMauritiusNorth MacedoniaBelarusMoldovaLatviaPoland
2023–2100 (projected)72.0%69.3%62.4%59.7%57.9%57.8%57.7%57.1%55.5%54.3%52.9%52.3%51.5%50.8%50.1%

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Frequently asked questions

Which countries are projected to lose a third of their population?

The UN medium scenario puts 29 countries and territories above a one-third population loss between 2023 and 2100, among those with at least 1,000,000 people in 2023. Hong Kong has the largest projected loss at 72%. These are conditional projections, not assured outcomes.

How is the percentage change calculated?

The calculation divides the 2100 population by the 2023 population, subtracts that ratio from one, and multiplies by 100. A larger positive loss means a greater proportional decline.

Are these future projections?

Yes. The figures after 2023 use the UN medium scenario. Different fertility, mortality and migration assumptions would produce different outcomes.

Where does this data come from?

UN World Population Prospects 2024 via Our World in Data; estimates to 2023, medium-variant projections after. Retrieved November 5, 2026. Population loss = (1 - population in 2100 / population in 2023) × 100. UN medium-variant projections after 2023; this is a scenario, not a forecast certainty. Country comparisons include World Bank country and territory entries. Includes populations of at least 1,000,000 in 2023. You can download the full table as a CSV from this page.

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