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Largest Projected Population Declines by 2050

Moldova: projected population drop of 23.3%, 2023–2050. 40 countries and territories qualify under the UN medium scenario.

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What the data shows

  • In 2023–2050 (projected), Moldova ranks #1 with 23.3%, ahead of Bosnia and Herzegovina (22.9%) and Puerto Rico (22.8%).

About this chart

Moldova has the largest percentage decline in this comparison: 23.3% between 2023 and 2050. Its population is projected to move from 3,067,072 to 2,351,806 people. Bosnia and Herzegovina follows with a 22.9% decline, from 3,185,072 to 2,455,171 people. There are 40 qualifying countries and territories; the table shows the 15 largest percentage losses. Only countries and territories with at least 1,000,000 people in 2023 enter the comparison.

The endpoint in 2050 comes from the UN medium-variant projection, while 2023 is a historical estimate. These numbers describe one demographic scenario, not an assured outcome. The percentage compares each country with its own starting population, so a smaller country can rank above a larger country even when it loses fewer people in absolute terms.

The data

Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024 via Our World in Data; estimates to 2023, medium-variant projections after. Retrieved November 5, 2026. Population loss = (1 - population in 2050 / population in 2023) × 100. UN medium-variant projections after 2023; this is a scenario, not a forecast certainty. Country comparisons include World Bank country and territory entries. Includes populations of at least 1,000,000 in 2023.

Largest Projected Population Declines by 2050, Projected population loss, 2023–2050 (%), 2023–2050 (projected)
DateMoldovaBosnia and HerzegovinaPuerto RicoLithuaniaBulgariaAlbaniaLatviaSerbiaBelarusHong KongNorth MacedoniaCroatiaRomaniaJapanPoland
2023–2050 (projected)23.3%22.9%22.8%20.9%20.5%20.3%19.6%18.3%18.2%18.2%17.4%17.0%16.2%15.5%15.3%

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Frequently asked questions

Which country or territory has the biggest projected population decline from 2023 to 2050?

Moldova leads this comparison with a projected 23.3% decline, from 3,067,072 in 2023 to 2,351,806 in 2050. Only countries and territories with at least 1,000,000 people in 2023 enter the comparison.

How is the percentage change calculated?

The calculation divides the 2050 population by the 2023 population, subtracts that ratio from one, and multiplies by 100. A larger positive loss means a greater proportional decline.

Are these future projections?

Yes. The figures after 2023 use the UN medium scenario. Different fertility, mortality and migration assumptions would produce different outcomes.

Where does this data come from?

UN World Population Prospects 2024 via Our World in Data; estimates to 2023, medium-variant projections after. Retrieved November 5, 2026. Population loss = (1 - population in 2050 / population in 2023) × 100. UN medium-variant projections after 2023; this is a scenario, not a forecast certainty. Country comparisons include World Bank country and territory entries. Includes populations of at least 1,000,000 in 2023. You can download the full table as a CSV from this page.

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