India vs China population, 1950 to 2100
India passes China, then China halves: the UN's population estimates and projections to 2100.
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What the data shows
- In 2025, India ranks #1 with 1,464M, ahead of China (1,416M) and United States (347M).
- By 2100, on the UN's projections, India is projected to rank #1 with 1,505M, ahead of China (633M) and Pakistan (511M).
- Back in 1950, China was #1 with 544M.
- The top spot changed hands once: India in 2025.
- Biggest climber: Pakistan, from #6 in 1950 to #3 in 2100.
- India grew 4.2× between 1950 and 2025.
About this chart
For centuries China was the most populous country on Earth. The UN estimates India took over in 2023, and the gap is projected to grow quickly because China's population has already started to shrink.
Values to 2023 are UN estimates; after that they are the UN's medium projection. The US, Indonesia, Pakistan and Nigeria are included for scale. Watch Pakistan and Nigeria: both are projected to pass the United States.
The data
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024 via Our World in Data; estimates to 2023, medium-variant projections after, millions. Retrieved November 3, 2026.
| Date | 🇮🇳 India | 🇨🇳 China | 🇺🇸 United States | 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 🇵🇰 Pakistan | 🇳🇬 Nigeria |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 346M | 544M | 154M | 69M | 36M | 37M |
| 1955 | 388M | 604M | 166M | 77M | 40M | 41M |
| 1960 | 436M | 655M | 180M | 88M | 46M | 45M |
| 1965 | 490M | 723M | 196M | 101M | 52M | 50M |
| 1970 | 546M | 823M | 208M | 116M | 60M | 56M |
| 1975 | 611M | 916M | 219M | 132M | 69M | 63M |
| 1980 | 687M | 983M | 230M | 149M | 82M | 74M |
| 1985 | 773M | 1,060M | 242M | 167M | 98M | 85M |
| 1990 | 865M | 1,154M | 253M | 184M | 116M | 97M |
| 1995 | 960M | 1,220M | 268M | 200M | 135M | 111M |
| 2000 | 1,058M | 1,270M | 281M | 216M | 155M | 126M |
| 2005 | 1,155M | 1,310M | 296M | 231M | 175M | 145M |
| 2010 | 1,243M | 1,352M | 311M | 246M | 199M | 167M |
| 2015 | 1,328M | 1,396M | 326M | 262M | 217M | 191M |
| 2020 | 1,403M | 1,426M | 339M | 275M | 235M | 214M |
| 2025 | 1,464M | 1,416M | 347M | 286M | 255M | 238M |
| 2030 | 1,525M | 1,398M | 356M | 296M | 277M | 262M |
| 2035 | 1,579M | 1,373M | 363M | 305M | 301M | 288M |
| 2040 | 1,623M | 1,343M | 370M | 312M | 325M | 313M |
| 2045 | 1,656M | 1,306M | 376M | 317M | 349M | 337M |
| 2050 | 1,680M | 1,260M | 381M | 321M | 372M | 359M |
| 2055 | 1,694M | 1,202M | 385M | 322M | 394M | 380M |
| 2060 | 1,701M | 1,135M | 389M | 323M | 414M | 400M |
| 2065 | 1,699M | 1,066M | 393M | 322M | 434M | 418M |
| 2070 | 1,689M | 999M | 398M | 320M | 451M | 433M |
| 2075 | 1,671M | 934M | 403M | 318M | 467M | 447M |
| 2080 | 1,646M | 870M | 407M | 315M | 480M | 458M |
| 2085 | 1,615M | 806M | 411M | 311M | 491M | 466M |
| 2090 | 1,580M | 745M | 414M | 306M | 499M | 472M |
| 2095 | 1,543M | 688M | 418M | 301M | 506M | 475M |
| 2100 | 1,505M | 633M | 421M | 296M | 511M | 477M |
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Frequently asked questions
When did India overtake China in population?
The UN estimates India became the world's most populous country in 2023. India has not held a census since 2011, so the exact month is an estimate, but every major source agrees the crossover happened around then.
Where does this data come from?
UN World Population Prospects 2024 via Our World in Data; estimates to 2023, medium-variant projections after, millions. Retrieved November 3, 2026. You can download the full table as a CSV from this page.
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